What to Expect in the Markets This Week
- The ECB will announce monetary policy as Eurozone inflation sags.
- China announces trade balance data, how is the world’s commerce recovering?
- U.S. releases July JOLTs data.
After the first weekly losses for U.S. markets in five, investors will get an extra day next week to gather themselves. U.S., Canadian, and Brazilian markets and financial institutions are closed Monday for Labor Day and Brazil’s Independence Day, but most global markets are open.
Last week’s sudden sell off for tech stocks brought many of the most popular stay-at-home stocks into a correction. Docusign(DOCU), Tesla(TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), were among the high-flying Nasdaq stocks that fell 10% or more from their recent highs. We’ll find out this week if investors will resume selling their winners after months of torrid gains.
Here’s how key asset classes have performed year-to-date:Here’s a look at major asset classes returns year-to-date:
Events This Week
Monday, Sept. 7:
- Market Holiday in the U.S. and Canada for Labor Day and in Brazil for Independence Day
- Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q2)
- German Industrial Production (July)
Tuesday, Sept. 8:
- Eurozone GDP (Q2)
- Lululemon Athletica Inc. Reports Earnings
- German Trade Balance (July)
- Chinese Consumer Price Index (August)
Wednesday, Sept. 9:
- Oracle Corp. Reports Earnings
- Brazilian CPI (August)
- Canadian Housing Starts (August)
- Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
- Mexican CPI (August)
- U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTs) Job Openings Data (July)
Thursday, Sept. 10:
- European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and Statement
- U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) (August)
- Broadcom Inc. Reports Earnings
Friday, Sept. 11:
- Kroger Co. Reports Earnings
- UK. Manufacturing Production (July)
- U.K. Monthly GDP Estimate (July)
- U.K. Trade Balance (July)
- Eurogroup Meeting
- U.S. CPI (August)
ECB Meeting Rate Announcement and Press Conference
Last week, the preliminary estimate for the EU’s inflation numbers came in shockingly low, with core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation dropping from 1.2% year-over-year in July to 0.4% in August, the lowest value since records started in 2001. The headline inflation, which doesn’t exclude things like energy costs, fell into a deflationary -0.2%. All this will likely weigh heavily on the European Central Bank as it announces monetary policy this upcoming Thursday. Inflation this low, substantially below the ECB’s target of 2%, may push the ECB to increase stimulus measures.
China Trade Balance
China’s trade balance, announced Sunday, Sept. 6, won’t only tell us how far back to capacity China’s economy is, but it will tell us how strong demand from the rest of the world is doing. Last month, China’s exports rose substantially more than expected, indicating that trade may be recovering faster than expected, a good sign for the global economic recovery. If that keeps pace, it’s a hopeful sign for better economic times as the virus ebbs in much of the world.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTs) data for July is being released this upcoming Wednesday. It gives a far closer and more granular look at the labor market than the unemployment reports or the nonfarm payrolls. From it, we can not only tell what areas of the labor market have a lot of slack as jobs are remaining unfilled, but also which areas are having substantial turnover. It even provides rates at which people quit versus those who’ve been laid off or discharged.