Gores Guggenheim Is a Buy, But Consider an Alternative in the Short Term
The merger between Polestar and Gores Guggenheim (NASDAQ:GGPI) is expected to happen in the first half of 2022. Since the Swedish electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer announced its merger with the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on Sept. 27, GGPI stock has gained about 14% or so.
However, at one point in mid-November, GGPI stock was trading as high as $16.41. That’s well above where it currently trades under the $11.50 level.
The volatility amongst EV manufacturers has been significant in the second half of 2021. Now, with volatility likely to continue into 2022, some possible alternatives exist as a short-term solution for risk-averse EV investors. Here’s why you should consider them.
Forego GGPI Stock Until After the Merger
At the end of November, I argued that GGPI stock was a better buy for aggressive investors than Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) in the long term. However, I also said that investors need not rush to buy the SPAC before the merger happens.
“[I]f a stock is destined to be a long-term winner (five to 10 years out), there is no rush to run out and buy it. Instead, get to know the company a little better. You might even get a better price in the process.”
From the day the Polestar 1 was launched, I have been a fan of the brand’s designs. And I’m not even a total car geek. The EV just looks nice. However, that’s an entirely different subject than whether you should buy GGPI at today’s prices.
I think this stock may continue to trade in the low teens until the de-SPAC merger happens in 2022. And I’m not the only one.
Around the same time as my article, fellow InvestorPlace contributor Chris Tyler argued that technical analysis of the stock suggested the beginning of December wasn’t the time to buy either. Ultimately, Tyler felt that waiting could get you a better entry point.
He was right. In December, it’s currently down almost 16%.
The Safer Alternatives
As you might be aware, post-merger, Polestar’s existing shareholders will own 94% of the company. Polestar itself is a joint venture between Volvo (OTCMKTS:VLVLY) and Geely (OTCMKTS:GELYY). As a result, Geely owns 50.5% of Polestar’s equity while Volvo owns 49.5%.
However, because Geely owns 78.4% of Volvo Cars stock — not to mention nearly 97% of its voting power — Polestar will ultimately be controlled by the Chinese car company and billionaire Li Shufu, the world’s 52nd wealthiest person.
So, this all gives you two alternatives to GGPI stock: either Volvo or Geely. Both stocks are thinly traded over the counter. However, of the two, GELYY stock volumes are a little higher.
Additionally, a possible third alternative here is to buy the First Trust Nasdaq Global Auto Index Fund (NASDAQ:CARZ). This is a collection of 34 auto manufacturers, including Geely at a 3.22% weighting. Despite being outside the top 10, it’s a reasonable amount of exposure.
That said, I suppose you could also argue that GGPI will move significantly higher once it’s trading under its new symbol, PSNY. Therefore, it might make sense to buy now before the merger, rather than afterwards.
For this, if you’re very aggressive, I’d suggest taking a half position today and waiting to see if it falls lower. A buy under $10 would be an excellent entry point, in my opinion. At the time of this writing, the stock is down 2.83% on the day, closing in on $11.
The Bottom Line on Polestar
I’m a big believer in Alec Gores, the chairman behind this SPAC. Gores has done as good a job as anyone demonstrating that blank-check companies can deliver the goods. Recently, I also suggested that Matterport (NASDAQ:MTTR) was an excellent buy under $20.
That company provides digital twins of properties. The technology is used widely in the vacation rental industry. Matterport merged with Gores Holdings VI back in July and Gores brought $310 million in cash to the deal after redemptions.
With that in mind, I continue to believe in Alec Gores’ real-world record of success with SPACs. In fact, he should be used by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler as an example of the good accomplished with blank-check names.
All told, GGPI stock is a buy long-term.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
