Moderna’s Long-Term Benefit Is Cursed by Short-Term Thinking

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) stock is dropping after results for its mRNA flu vaccine is underwhelming investors. However, in my opinion, the real problem is that the flu underwhelms investors.

Since the Moderna vaccine was given an emergency use authorization in November 2020, there have been numerous critics. I’ve heard arguments that the mRNA technology will alter our bodies on the cellular level. There’s no telling what harm will be done to us in five years. 

That’s not to belittle rightful concerns. These include instances of myocarditis and other side effects that are evident in the vaccinated population.  However, my larger point is that Moderna’s mRNA breakthrough has come for a virus that millions of Americans have sloughed off like the flu. And even those who have had more acute symptoms now believe they have natural immunity that is superior to the vaccine. 

All of this means the risk/reward profile of the vaccine is obvious for those considered at high risk for Covid-19. However, it’s not “serious” enough to capture the national imagination. This is typical of a society that is both blessed and cursed by short-term thinking.

Answering the Question, ‘What If?’ 

But what if the issue of the moment was a much more infectious and deadly plague? Then any risk (short or long term) would be easily dismissed. We’d have lines miles long for people begging to get the vaccine.  

Well that’s obvious you say? OK, stick with me for a second. What if you or a loved one had terminal cancer? And what if there was a “vaccine” that could potentially activate the immune system in a way that would attack tumor cells?  

Now imagine that you learned that in order for that to occur the T-cells would have to be re-engineered to seek out and destroy cancer cells?

Most of us wouldn’t give two thoughts about long-term ramifications. We’d roll up our sleeves or beg our loved one to do the same on the opportunity to not just hold cancer at bay but eradicate it from the body. 

If that last sentence intrigues you or just excites you, then you can start to understand the real potential of mRNA technology. 

Now before you call the lawyers on me, I’m not making any of the above up. And if you want to read more for yourself, I’d encourage you to read the Penn Medicine article that allowed me to craft the scenario above.  

Does MRNA Stock Have Risks? 

Absolutely it does. And one of the largest risks is that it’s not the only biotech company that’s working with mRNA technology. That means that there is a risk that it won’t be first to market with a cancer vaccine, or an HIV vaccine.  

And as the Penn Medicine article states, this is incredibly complex, customized work. That’s why you need to understand that buying shares of Moderna is an investment in a result that may be years away, if it happens at all.  

But if Moderna is successful how much would one share of MRNA stock be worth? My guess is the company would be able to name its price.  

And here’s what should really excite long-term investors. Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is giving them a sizable war chest of cash that it will need to get its other vaccine candidates through clinical trials.

Short-Term Trade or Long-Term Investment? 

That’s the question you need to ask yourself. If you believe that mRNA technology is smoke and mirrors and the company is a one-trick pony, then figure out a trade that works and have at it. Or simply stay away.  

But if you believe that the company’s mRNA vaccine is just an early-stage payoff for a much grander vision that the company’s pipeline outlines, then I’d encourage you to then I’d encourage you to buy every dip in MRNA stock until the company proves it can’t make its vision a reality.  

On the date of publication, Chris Markoch did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.  

Chris Markoch is a freelance financial copywriter who has been covering the market for seven years. He has been writing for InvestorPlace since 2019.