What Does the Banking Crisis Mean for JPM Stock?
As JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated, the banking crisis is “not yet over.” What investors may want to know, however, is how this crisis impacts this particular bank itself. And, most importantly, what the situation looks like for JPM stock going forward.
Last month, when the failure of SVB Financial’s (OTCMKT:SIVBQ) Silicon Valley Bank subsidiary set the recent banking crisis into motion, scores of depositors moved quickly. These depositors opened accounts at JPMorgan Chase and other money center banks. Accordingly, many headlines aptly stated that the big banks benefited from the collapse.
The narrative is that regional banks (perceived to be more vulnerable) will continue losing customers/deposits to the “too big to fail” institutions.
However, will this “big banks are winning, regional banks are losing” narrative help to spur a recovery for this stock, still trading at below pre-crisis price levels? Let’s find out.
JPM Stock: Crisis and Opportunity
In his latest annual letter to JPM shareholders, Jamie Dimon made his view quite clear on whether the banking crisis is a good or bad thing for big banks such as the one he leads. That is, he declared it “absurd” for anyone to think that this crisis is a positive for JPMorgan Chase or its large bank peers.
On the one hand, this may imply that there are more headwinds than tailwinds ahead for JPM stock, due to this crisis. On the other hand, one can argue that Dimon is merely being diplomatic. As a leading financial institution, JPMorgan Chase has to take on specific responsibilities that help to stabilize the banking system.
A good example is JPM’s participation in the rescue of the distressed First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC). Accordingly, this crisis could provide JPMorgan with other opportunities. Besides the continued deposit inflows from regional institutions, this crisis could spur another significant wave of banking consolidation.
Relatively low prices for smaller banks, along with cost synergies and market share benefits, could result in highly-accretive deals for JPMorgan moving forward.
Why are Shares Still in a Slump?
If opportunities from the banking crisis may outweigh further troubles, then is JPM stock still in a slump? Good question. As contagion concerns remain high, many investors are still shying away from companies in the financials sector, including even the highest-quality and lowest-risk names.
Thus, there are some valid concerns regarding near-term prospects for JPM stock. Like all banks, JPMorgan is now sitting on billions in unrealized losses, due to the sharp rise in interest rates. Even as this bank remains well-capitalized when considering these losses, as Louis Navellier pointed out last month, these paper losses are still giving investors pause.
Outside the banking crisis, other risks are weighing on JPM and its peers, such as high exposure to commercial real estate (or CRE) loans. With interest rates now high, and commercial property occupancy rates still low, there are growing fears about a CRE crisis.
Nevertheless, despite these risks, and the market’s cautious approach to JPM stock today, that’s not to say you should take a pass on the stock. Although this bank stock isn’t trading at a discount to its peers, its current valuation may make it a relative bargain.
At the time of writing, JPM stock trades for around 10.6-times forward earnings. Yet, while other money center banks trade at single-digit price-earnings ratios, JPM stock may still be a steal, even at its current multiple.
Historically, this bank stock has traded at a premium to its peers. This is due to the bank’s strong balance sheet and incredible track record of profitability. The company’s relatively high multiple is still at the lower end of this range, which spans from around 10-times earnings to 15-times earnings.
As the crisis eventually resolves, JPMorgan could gradually return to prior multiples. This, coupled with expected earnings growth, could result in solid returns over a multi-year timeframe.
Even as the banking crisis still hangs over this stock, and despite other potential risks, long-term investors may want to consider JPM stock, as it continues to trade below pre-crisis prices.
On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.