AMC, Archer, and XPeng: The Trio That’s Got Wall Street Analysts Buzzing
The stock market seems to win even when it loses. Even as a strong jobs market report Friday hints that interest rate cuts are not coming in the next few months, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 gained several hundred points or about 1%.
After last year’s big comeback, many expected growth stocks to not power the indices higher again. But history shows stocks often have back-to-back strong performances after a down year. That’s likely because bull markets tend to run for several years while bear markets usually last for less than 18 months.
Also, that accounts for Wall Street’s bullish outlooks on most stocks. Only a relative handful of stocks are ever rated a sell. Analysts have an especially rosy outlook for the three companies below. They believe the stocks can run between 123% higher or more. Let’s see whether Wall Street found a few growth stocks that are really hidden gems to buy.
AMC Entertainment (AMC)
Hope springs eternal for movie theater operator AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), which got decimated by the pandemic and has yet to recover. Its stock is doing even worse, losing 95% over its value from the 52-week high it hit last July. Analysts, though, still see the stock rising 137% in value over the coming year. Never mind the consensus sell rating on AMC stock. Even on the low side of estimates, there is hope for a 57% gain. What’s going on here?
B. Riley Securities analyst Eric Wold has steadily lowered his price target on AMC Entertainment. It went from a high of $45 per share last September down to $8 a stub in March. All the while Wold remains neutral on its shares with a hold rating.
TheStreet.com points out Wold highlighted AMC’s better-than-expected earnings report due to distributing concert films from Taylor Swift and Beyonce. It suggests an avenue the theater owner can take in the future to boost revenue along with strong concession stand sales. Yet, delays in several anticipated movies this year were behind Wold’s decision to cut his target price from $12 to $8 per share.
This is just wishful thinking. Theater attendance remains below pre-pandemic levels. Hollywood is not churning out many blockbuster films these days. The age of the super hero flick seems over and with more entertainment alternatives available, theaters will not recover the ground they lost. Wall Street might think AMC Entertainment stock can double or more from here. But investors would be better off avoiding it and looking elsewhere for opportunity.
Archer Aviation (ACHR)
Wall Street also has high hopes for robotaxi stock Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR). Shares are down 30% in 2024 but over the past year they are up almost 60%. Analysts see the electrical vertical takeoff & landing (eVTOL) leader more than doubling in value. The median price target is $9.60 per share, or 123% of its current $4.30 price tag. Unlike AMC, Wall Street has a strong buy rating on the company.
There is good reason to be ebullient about Archer Aviation stock’s potential. The eVTOL industry is being developed literally from the ground up. Archer and rivals like Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) and Lilium (NASDAQ:LILM) are creating something from nothing and are almost ready to launch commercial businesses.
Normally, investing in such a situation would be high risk but the eVTOL industry really is on the brink of reality. Although ACHR is risky, the company benefits from support not only from airline and automotive industries but also the federal government. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has been surprisingly supportive and accommodating to Archer, Joby and others. There is even cooperation from NASA and the Air Force.
Archer has an order book for 700 aircraft once it receives FAA approval. And, the United Arab Emirates will permit it to immediately launch a robotaxi service when the FAA says “go.” Wall Street might not have liked Archer’s recent earnings report, but it’s right in line with development-stage companies. Archer Aviation stock could be one the analysts are underselling.
Xpeng (XPEV)
Wall Street sees Chinese electric vehicle (EV) company Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) soaring over the coming year. Like the other stocks in this list, XPEV has fallen on hard times. Shares are down 50% in 2024 as EV sales growth stalls globally.
Although the EV maker itself reported a 20% increase in deliveries in Q1, that’s dramatically fewer deliveries than 171% increase reported in Q4 of 2023. And it’s not alone in that regard. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and homegrown rival BYD (OTCMKTS:BYDDY) also reported a significant dropoff in sales. So, it doesn’t bode well for long-term growth.
That’s why Wall Street’s buy rating with a 140% gain for Xpeng stock is curious. At the high end of target price estimates, analysts see the EV stock soaring over 250% higher. It may be difficult to see that materializing.
To realize the 20% increase in deliveries this quarter, Xpeng had to double the incentives offered on its G9 model SUV and extend others. Even then, Xpeng was only able to cross over the lower end of its guidance for 21,000 to 22,500 deliveries in Q1. Ultimately, it had 21,821 for the period. That was just one-third of the 60,000 deliveries reported for Q4.
While Xpeng stock might rise above its current $7.40 per share level, I don’t see it doubling in value, let alone jumping 140% higher.
On the date of publication, Rich Duprey held a LONG position in KO and PG stock. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
