It’s Time to Lock the Door on Opendoor Technologies

The last time I wrote about Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ:OPEN) stock was on Dec. 21. Maybe it should have been the last time I wrote about it.

It’s only been three weeks, which is nothing. Yet OPEN stock hemorrhaged 20% between then and the time of this writing.

True, you shouldn’t overreact to price action occurring within a short (and admittedly arbitrary) time frame. But the thing is, even when you broaden the horizon, OPEN stock does not portray itself in a positive light. If you want my opinion, extending the range worsens the picture.

Since its first closing price – this would be before the equity unit listed under the name of the special purpose acquisition company that took Opendoor public – OPEN stock has only gained 6%. In my opinion, a very real possibility exists that shares could eventually trade below the SPAC’s IPO price of $10.

For a better perspective of why I feel this way, you should consider reading my last take on the company, which specializes in the instant buyer (iBuyer) market or real estate transactions leveraging multiple digital technologies. Honestly, I don’t think I can write a better, more informative article on OPEN stock in 800 words or less.

In a nutshell, though, the commonly distributed bullish factors that supposedly will keep real estate prices rising higher may be wrong. For instance, despair among millennials is up, a terribly strange statistic if most young people have so much money from their pandemic savings that they’re buying homes in cash.

Also, the pandemic did not spark a baby boom, a key motivator for home purchases. Relationships may have even faltered, which may help explain much of the despair millennials are feeling.

Even the Anecdotes are Poor for OPEN Stock

Should the concept of young buyers be more a fabricated facade pumped up by real estate professionals and the mainstream media, OPEN stock would then likely face even greater turmoil. Personally, I remain suspicious of this thesis as rarely (if ever) had the media promoted the idea that millennials were on average in a good financial spot.

Why would a global catastrophe change this narrative for the better?

Other factors started pouring in since the date of my last take on OPEN stock that I questioned the viability of the U.S. real estate market even more. Note that these are anecdotes, but they provide additional color to the myriad facts I presented in my last article.

First, during a conversation I had with my real estate agent about soaring housing prices, she gave me the usual song and dance about millennials. But then she also mentioned the influx of foreign buyers from China, South Korea and Singapore, among others.

This made sense. Basically, when the U.S. dollar weakens, other currencies relatively get stronger. Thus, the greenback-weakening bailout we all enjoyed could have incentivized foreign investors to scoop up U.S. real estate. And why not? To them, our housing is relatively cheap.

Second, the iBuyer model may be flawed in that in order for it to work, the provider must offer lower-than-normal prices to sellers and higher-than-normal prices to buyers. Loosely supporting this idea are angry comments about Opendoor on various local Better Business Bureau forums.

Now, should you let angry internet comments guide your decision on OPEN stock? Absolutely not! But it’s interesting that while people are vocally expressing their disappointment with Opendoor’s business practices, the company’s retained earnings continue to move in the wrong direction, as I stated in my last write-up.

The Facts and the (Possible) Fiction Align

Let me repeat because I don’t want to suffer criticism for the wrong reasons: you should always let facts, not anecdotal evidence, be your guiding star on any major life decision. The point about the anecdotes is that they tell the same message about OPEN stock; namely, stay away.

Look, if the anecdotes clashed with the facts, I’d go with the facts unless there was a truly compelling reason to avoid them. And I really couldn’t think of an example of why that would be the wise course of action.

Instead, what we have with the underlying business of OPEN stock are warnings that bring additional context to the already worrying data and trends that cloud the iBuyer market.

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare.